A Few Thoughts on the WRPI Poll

Five months before the next gubernatorial election, Jim Doyle has a substantial lead over Republican challenger Mark Green. In a head-to-head race, Doyle leads Green 49% to 37%. These are among the key findings about politics from the most recent survey of 600 Wisconsin residents conducted by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, Inc. and Diversified Research between June 18 and June 19, 2006.

Doyle’s lead over Green changes in some regions of the state. Doyle leads Green in the City of Milwaukee by 60% to 29%. In the Madison area he leads by 63% to 21%. In La Crosse, 62% to 26%, and surprisingly in outstate Wisconsin by 52% to 34%. Green’s strength lies in Green Bay where his lead is 49% to 39%, and in the Milwaukee suburbs where he leads 47% to 35%. In Waukesha County his margin is 46% to 37%. The core of Jim Doyle’s support comes from Democrats (84%), Liberals (80%), Blacks (87%), and people who describe themselves politically
as “middle of the road” (53%). One of the other things that is clearly developing in this race is a gender split. Green actually leads Doyle among male voters by 46% to 40%, while Doyle has an enormous lead among women, 57% to 30%.

Another finding in this survey, however, is how this head-to-head would play out among residents who have an opinion of both candidates. Among residents who have an opinion of both Mark Green and Jim Doyle, Green actually leads Doyle 52% to 42%. These numbers seem to be at cross-purposes until one examines Issues and long-term trends in the state.

Myth #1 - 'Doyle is in trouble'.

I disagree on this. If you look at the larger poll numbers, you will see why.

First some addition: Let's assume that the 'undecided' are also a cross section of the electorate. If you look at who supports Doyle by large margins - Liberals, Women, African-Americans and the 'middle of the road' the projected support should carry Doyle over the top.

But, Doyle is an unpopular Governor, they say. Tommy Thompson could have easily walked back into the Governor's office if he ran...

Except, lets look at their numbers:

Name Favorable Unfavorable
Doyle 44% 38%
Thompson 49% 36%

Margin of error: plus or minus 4%

That means that Doyle popularity is within the margin of error with St. Tommy's, even though the press has constant scrutiny of the Doyle record now, and nothing but flowery retellings of the Thompson days for the last few years.

If Doyle is in trouble with these numbers, I guess we can see why Tommy didn't run.

Meanwhile, to know Mark Green is to dislike him. 55% did not know him in this poll vs 66% in the last. As 10% of Wisconsin has learned about him, his Unfavorable rating went up.... 10%!

Bring on the fall. And let's make sure people keep getting to know Mark Green - especially women and minorities.